To see Qianying’s presentation, “COVID-19 Outbreak in Wuhan, China: in Retrospect and in Prospect” please click here. A captioned version will be available soon.
Abstract: Since first confirmation in December 2019, the novel coronavirus diseases (COVID-19) infected more than 50,000 people and claimed over 2000 lives in Wuhan, China. It was transmitted across the whole country shortly, and now swept the world by causing more 20,000 infections in countries other than China. Using official reported cases and assuming changing reporting ratio, we investigated the early stage of the epidemic of COVID-19 in Wuhan and analysed its transmissibility. We then built up a conceptual model and incorporated the zoonotic introduction, emigration, individual reaction, and governmental action to simulate the trends of the outbreak in Wuhan and predicted the disease would be completely controlled by the end of April under current policies. These studies provide insights into not only the characteristics of COVID-19 itself, but the impact of governmental actions.