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MIDAS COVID-19 Special Seminar Series: MIDAS Fellow, Qianying Lin – COVID-19 Outbreak in Wuhan, China: in Retrospect and in Prospect
March 13, 2020 @ 3:00 pm - 4:00 pm
MIDAS Fellow, University of Michigan
COVID-19 Outbreak in Wuhan, China: in Retrospect and in Prospect
Abstract: Since the first confirmation in December 2019, the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has infected more than 50,000 people and has claimed over 2000 lives in Wuhan, China. It was transmitted across the country rapidly, and has now swept across the globe causing more than 20,000 infections in countries other than China. Using official reported cases and assuming a changing reporting ratio, we investigated the early stages of the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan and analyzed it’s transmissibility. We then built a conceptual model and incorporated the zoonotic introduction, emigration, individual reaction, and governmental action to simulate the trends of the outbreak in Wuhan. We predicted the disease would be completely controlled by the end of April under current policies. These studies provide insights into not only the characteristics of COVID-19 itself, but the impact of governmental actions.
Qianying Lin, a Michigan Data Science Fellow, employs data science methods to predict epidemic trends. Qianying received her PhD degree from Hong Kong Polytechnic University. Her work on COVID-19 is a collaboration with colleagues at seven universities in China, and has resulted in three published papers in the International Journal of Infectious Diseases and The Journal of Clinical Medicine.
All attendees will receive a copy of the slides. If you are unable to attend and would like to see the slides/ video of the presentation, please send an email to Kristin Burgard, Outreach and Partnership Manager, firstname.lastname@example.org.
S Zhao, et al. Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak. Int J Infect Dis. 2020 Mar;92:214-217. DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.01.050. Epub 2020 Jan 30.
S Zhao, et al. Estimating the Unreported Number of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Cases in China in the First Half of January 2020: A Data-Driven Modelling Analysis of the Early Outbreak. J Clin Med. 2020 Feb 1;9(2). pii: E388. DOI: 10.3390/jcm9020388.
Q Lin, et al. A conceptual model for the outbreak of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan, China with individual reaction and governmental action. Int J Infect Dis. 2020. DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.02.058. https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30117-X/fulltext